Today, I continue my review of my election predictions:
Attorney General
Actual Result:
Scott Newton (R) 38%
Jim Hood (D) 62%
Comment: I forgot to add my percentages to my prediction, but I would have put them at 52% Newton, 48% Hood. As it turns out, I was really way off on that one. And, goodness, how the mud was slung in this'un. Newton called Hood a chronic plea bargainer in murder and drug cases, Hood said that Newton was not experienced. The ace in the hole for Hood was the retiring AG, Democrat Mike Moore. The popular Moore (he served 4 terms, if that's not the definition of popular, I don't know what is) gave his endorsement to Hood that ran on TV ads right before the election. Newton lost, at least in part, for one of the main reasons Musgrove lost: he ran a too negative of a campaign. Both of them ran ads that essentially claimed that the world would end if their opponents won.
Secretary of State
My Prediction:
Eric Clark (D) 70%
Julio Del Castillo (R) 29%
Brenda Blackburn (Reform) 1%
Actual result:
Eric Clark (D) 71%
Julio Del Castillo (R) 24%
Brenda Blackburn (Reform) 6%
Comment: About what I predicted, though Blackburn managed to get 6% mainly due to to Del Castillo's weak candidacy.
State Treasurer
My Prediction:
Tate Reeves (R) 52%
Gary Anderson (D) 48%
Lee Dilworth (Reform) less than 1%
Actual Result:
Tate Reeves (R) 52%
Gary Anderson (D) 46%
Lee Dilworth (Reform) 2%
Comment: Of all my predictions, I think this one was most accruate. Unlike the other big-time races, this one was pretty free of rancor. Anderson emphasized his fiscal conservativism and years of experience in government, while Reeve's highlighted his own private sector financial know-how.
State Auditor
My Prediction:
Phil Bryant (R) 90%
Billy Blackburn (Reform) 10%
Actual Result:
Phil Bryant (R) 76%
Billy Blackburn (Reform) 24%
Comment: Bryant handily crushes Blackburn, but by a smaller marigin than I predicted.
Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce
My Prediction:
Lester Spell (D) 55%
Max Phillips (R) 44%
Bob Claunch (Reform) 1%
Actual Result:
Lester Spell (D) 66%
Max Phillips (R) 32%
Bob Claunch (Reform) 2%
Comment: Spell won easily, but better than I guessed. But like I said, Spell hadn't ticked off anybody royally, so his re-election wasn't in doubt.
Commissioner of Insurance
My Prediction:
George Dale (D) 64%
Aaron Dupuy III (R) 35%
Barbara Dale Washer (Reform) 1%
Actual Result:
George Dale (D) 71%
Aaron Dupuy III (R) 25%
Barbara Dale Washer (Reform) 4%
Comment: Dale cruises to his eighth term; while Dupuy offers less of a challenge than I originally thought. Even Washer managed to climb over the 1% mark.
That's it for now, but I'll have an analysis on the State House and Senate races some time soon.